Economic Overview–Global Macroeconomic View
In the long term, global GDP growth is forecast to ease to 3.5% by 2025 and 3.3% by 2030.
This compares to 3.8% average annual growth over both the medium term and over the past 15 years.
This is on the assumption that output gaps in the advanced economies will have closed. In addition, demographic factors will be less favourable, with ageing populations in advanced economies slowing growth in the labour force. While remaining much higher, growth in emerging markets is also expected to gradually ease, driven by the maturing of China’s economy as it moves towards domestic consumption away from investment and exports. Slower growth rates in China will also limit growth potential in other emerging markets.
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